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Stuttgart
Bundesliga | Gameweek 29
Apr 8, 2022 at 7.30pm UK
 
Dortmund logo

Stuttgart
0 - 2
Dortmund


Mangala (45+3'), Karazor (86')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Brandt (12', 71')
Bellingham (82')

Preview: Stuttgart vs. Borussia Dortmund - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Friday's Bundesliga clash between Stuttgart and Borussia Dortmund, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Seeking to avoid a third successive Bundesliga match without a victory, Borussia Dortmund will take on relegation-threatened Stuttgart at the Mercedes-Benz Arena on Friday night.

The hosts, meanwhile, will be looking to boost their hopes of survival with a third successive league victory on home soil.


Match preview

Stuttgart coach Pellegrino Matarazzo on December 14, 2021© Reuters

After a miserable run of seven defeats and two draws between mid-December and the end of February, Stuttgart have since won two and drawn two of their last four league matches, an upturn in form which has helped them climb out of the relegation zone.

Three of these four games saw Die Roten come from behind to claim at least a point, but the boot was on the other foot against Arminia Bielefeld as a second-half strike from Florian Kruger cancelled out Sasa Kalajdzic's first-half penalty, forcing both sides to settle for a 1-1 draw last weekend.

Pellegrino Matarazzo's men will have been disappointed not to have come away with all three points against a fellow relegation-threatened side, but nevertheless, they remain one point above the bottom three with six Bundesliga games remaining.

Three of their final six fixtures are against teams who currently sit in the top seven, including Friday's opponents Borussia Dortmund, a side that they have failed to beat on home soil since November 2017.

Stuttgart, however, are unbeaten in their last three home league matches, winning their last two by a 3-2 scoreline. Die Roten have also claimed 18 of their 27 points at the Mercedes-Benz Arena this season, so they will relish playing in front of their home supporters on Friday.

Borussia Dortmund coach Marco Rose on March 16, 2022© Reuters

Borussia Dortmund's slim hopes of winning their first Bundesliga title since 2011-12 are seemingly all but over after they suffered a heavy 4-1 defeat at home to Champions League-chasing RB Leipzig last weekend.

A first-half brace from Konrad Laimer gave the visitors a two-goal lead at half time, before in-form attacker Christopher Nkunku added a third just before the hour-mark. Donyell Malen pulled one back for BVB in the 84th minute with a close-range header, but any hopes of a late revival were quashed moments later as Dani Olmo restored Leipzig's three-goal cushion to condemn the hosts to their seventh league defeat of the campaign.

Marco Rose's men now sit nine points behind perennial Bundesliga winners and current leaders Bayern Munich, who are in the driving seat to clinch their 10th successive top-flight title.

Dortmund will be confident of returning to winning ways on Friday, as they have won five of their last six meetings with Stuttgart, scoring at least three goals on four of these occasions. BVB are also unbeaten in each of their last six away matches in the Bundesliga, the longest current run in the division.

With no European football or domestic cups to contend with, Dortmund can focus fully on their final six league games, and victory on Friday would see them consolidate second place, where they have finished in five of the last nine seasons.

Stuttgart Bundesliga form:
  • D
  • L
  • W
  • D
  • W
  • D

Borussia Dortmund Bundesliga form:
  • W
  • D
  • W
  • W
  • D
  • L

Borussia Dortmund form (all competitions):
  • D
  • D
  • W
  • W
  • D
  • L


Team News

Borussia Dortmund's Axel Witsel celebrates scoring their first goal with Erling Braut Haaland and teammates on March 16, 2022© Reuters

Stuttgart will be without left-back Borna Sosa (groin), winger Silas Katompa Mvumpa (shoulder) and midfielder Nikolas Nartey (knee) due to injury.

Waldemar Anton is suspended due to an accumulation of yellow cards, so Matarazzo may revert to a three-man defence on Friday, with Konstantinos Mavropanos, Hiroki Ito and Pascal Stenzel starting at centre-back, while Roberto Massimo and Tanguy Coulibaly operate as wing-backs.

Target man Kalajdzic, who has scored four goals in his last six league games, is set to lead the line, and he could be joined in attack by Omar Marmoush and Tiago Tomas.

As for Borussia Dortmund, defenders Thomas Meunier (hamstring), Steffen Tigges (ankle), Felix Passlack, Nico Schulz (both muscle), Mateu Morey and Marcel Schmelzer (both ACL) are all ruled out with injuries.

Despite a heavy defeat last weekend, Rose is unlikely to make too many changes, if any, to his starting lineup, with Emre Can, Mats Hummels and Manuel Akanji all set to start again at centre-back.

Mahmoud Dahoud will be hoping to force his way into the first XI, but Jude Bellingham and Axel Witsel are expected to start ahead of him in centre-midfield.

Either Malen or Giovanni Reyna could replace Marius Wolf, joining Marco Reus and Erling Braut Haaland in attack.

Stuttgart possible starting lineup:
Muller; Stenzel, Mavropanos, Ito; Massimo, Karazor, Endo, Coulibaly; Tomas, Marmoush; Kalajdzic

Borussia Dortmund possible starting lineup:
Kobel; Can, Hummels, Akanji; Hazard, Witsel, Bellingham, Guerreiro; Reyna, Reus; Haaland


SM words green background

We say: Stuttgart 1-3 Borussia Dortmund

Goals are to be expected on Friday, as the ball has hit the back of the net at least three times in each of the last 15 meetings between these two sides.

Stuttgart have recently shown signs of improvement and have built momentum at a good time heading into their clash with Dortmund, but the visitors will be fired up to turn their fortunes around and they should have plenty of firepower to claim all three points.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting over 2.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Over 2.5:data



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Written by
Oliver Thomas

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Borussia Dortmund win with a probability of 56.92%. A win for Stuttgart had a probability of 22.25% and a draw had a probability of 20.8%.

The most likely scoreline for a Borussia Dortmund win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (7.72%) and 0-1 (7.34%). The likeliest Stuttgart win was 2-1 (5.75%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.19%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 7.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Borussia Dortmund would win this match.


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Game History

How you voted: Stuttgart vs Dortmund

Stuttgart
13.1%
Draw
11.7%
Borussia Dortmund
75.2%
137
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 Borussia Dortmund's Erling Braut Haaland during the warm up before the match, January 18, 2022
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1Bayern MunichBayern13103041103133
2Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt1383233181527
3Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen1375130201026
4RB Leipzig137332114724
5Wolfsburg136342922721
6Borussia DortmundDortmund136342420421
7Freiburg136341717021
8Stuttgart135532623320
9Mainz 05Mainz135442318519
10Werder Bremen135442024-419
11Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach135351918118
12Union BerlinUnion Berlin134451214-216
13Augsburg134451625-916
14Hoffenheim133461825-713
15St Pauli133281117-611
16Heidenheim133191728-1110
17Holstein Kiel1312101333-205
18VfL BochumVfL Bochum1302111034-242


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