Champions League Gameweek 3
Oct 20, 2026 8.00pm
1
1
HT : 1 0
FT MHPArena
  • Maximilian Mittelstädt 17' yellowcard
  • Jamie Leweling 36' goal
  • goal Julián Alvarez 47'
  • redcard Morten Hjulmand 64'
  • yellowcard Diego Simeone 85'

Stuttgart vs Atletico Madrid - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

The match

Match Preview

Form, Standings, Stats

Stuttgart

All competitions
Champions League
Last game
Sep 9, 2026 5.45pm
Stuttgart 3 - 1 Viking FK

Atletico Madrid

All competitions
Champions League
Last game
Sep 9, 2026 8.00pm
Liverpool 2 - 1 Atletico

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Stuttgart win with a probability of 40%. A win for Atletico Madrid had a probability of 37.96% and a draw had a probability of 22.07%.

The most likely scoreline for a Stuttgart win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.47%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.93%) and 2-0 (5.49%). The likeliest Atletico Madrid win was 1-2 (8.04%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.81%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 9.8% likelihood.

Result

Stuttgart 40% ▼ (-0.58)
Draw 22.07% ▲ (+0.15)
Atletico Madrid 37.96% ▲ (+0.50)

Both Teams to Score: 

60.37% ▲ (+1.18)

Goals

Over 1.5 82.53% ▲ (+0.24)
Under 1.5 17.47% ▼ (-0.25)
Over 2.5 62.12% ▲ (+0.11)
Under 2.5 37.87% ▼ (-0.13)
Over 3.5 39.35% ▲ (+0.53)
Under 3.5 60.65% ▼ (-0.53)
Over 4.5 24.77% ▲ (+0.02)
Under 4.5 75.23% ▼ (-0.02)

First Half Winner

Stuttgart 36.05% ▼ (-3.22)
Draw 39.41% ▲ (+1.86)
Atletico Madrid 24.54% ▲ (+1.36)

Team To Score First

Stuttgart 53.86% ▼ (-3.83)
No Goal 4.12% ▼ (-0.23)
Atletico Madrid 42.02% ▲ (+4.07)

Corners

Over 8 57.91% ▲ (+3.61)
Equal 8 10.29% ▼ (-0.04)
Under 8 31.8% ▼ (-3.59)
Over 9 47.38% ▲ (+3.38)
Equal 9 10.53% ▲ (+0.25)
Under 9 42.09% ▼ (-3.61)
Over 10.5 37.41% ▲ (+2.91)
Under 10.5 62.59% ▼ (-2.91)

Stuttgart Goals

Over 1.5 44.56% ▼ (-0.17)
Under 1.5 55.44% ▲ (+0.17)
Over 2.5 20.94% ▼ (-0.67)
Under 2.5 79.06% ▲ (+0.66)
Over 3.5 8.81% ▼ (-0.60)
Under 3.5 91.19% ▲ (+0.60)

Atletico Madrid Goals

Over 0.5 71.74% ▲ (+1.15)
Under 0.5 28.26% ▼ (-1.15)
Over 1.5 42.91% ▲ (+0.99)
Under 1.5 57.09% ▼ (-0.99)
Over 2.5 20.2% ▲ (+0.35)
Under 2.5 79.8% ▼ (-0.36)
Over 3.5 8.01% ▲ (+0.17)
Under 3.5 91.99% ▼ (-0.17)

Score analysis

Stuttgart 40%
Draw 22.08%
Atletico Madrid 37.97%
Stuttgart
2-1 @ 8.47% ▲ (+0.03)
1-0 @ 6.93% ▲ (+0.07)
2-0 @ 5.49% ▲ (+0.01)
3-1 @ 4.08% ▲ (+0.08)
3-2 @ 3.26% ▲ (+0.18)
3-0 @ 3.2% ▼ (-0.37)
Other @ 8.57% ▼ (-0.55)
Total : 40%
Draw
1-1 @ 9.81% ▲ (+0.08)
2-2 @ 6.32% ▲ (+0.30)
0-0 @ 4.12% ▼ (-0.23)
3-3 @ 1.59% ▲ (+0.07)
Other @ 0.24% ▼ (-0.05)
Total : 22.08%
Atletico Madrid
1-2 @ 8.04% ▲ (+0.14)
0-1 @ 6.47%
0-2 @ 5.09% ▲ (+0.04)
1-3 @ 4.2% ▲ (+0.17)
2-3 @ 3.34% ▲ (+0.17)
0-3 @ 3.06% ▼ (-0.20)
Other @ 7.77% ▲ (+0.21)
Total : 37.97%