Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 38.66%. A win for Paris Saint-Germain had a probability of 38.24% and a draw had a probability of 23.06%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 1-0 with a probability of 7.76%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.57%) and 2-0 (5.46%). The likeliest Paris Saint-Germain win was 1-2 (8.87%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.58%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 7.6% likelihood.