Sparta Rotterdam welcome Fortuna Sittard to the Het Kasteel on Saturday, hoping to go above them in the Eredivisie table.
The home and away sides are 12th and 11th on the log respectively, with only two points separating the teams from each other as things stand.
Match preview
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Sparta are without a win in four league games since beating Saturday's visitors 1-0 in the reverse fixture last month at the Fortuna Sittard Stadion.
Home form has been a major Achilles' heel for Henk Fraser and his men, with only the bottom three clubs picking up fewer points than them on home territory.
However, De Kasteelheren have lost just one of their last seven home games against Saturday's opponents, so history is on their side for this one.
Given that they did not get their first league win of the season until the eighth game, Sparta have done relatively well in a season that could have easily turned out far worse than it currently is.
Fortuna's run of two consecutive wins was ended by Heracles on Friday in a narrow 1-0 defeat courtesy of a Rai Vloet strike seven minutes before half time.
Sjors Ultee's men came out fighting in the second half, coming close on multiple occasions, but they were unable to salvage anything from the game.
Despite their most recent defeat, the away side have lost only three of their last 10 league games stretching back to December, when they started to hit top form.
They are in 11th place going into the latest round of matches but more importantly, only four points separate them from ninth-placed Heerenveen, and they also have a game in hand.
The Fortunezen were able to complete the loan signings of Dimitris Emmanouilidis and Dario Van den Buijs as they look to bolster their squad ahead of the second phase of the season.
Should they manage to pick up all three points come Saturday, they will surpass the total number of points that they amassed in the whole of last season, which was abruptly ended due to coronavirus.
Sparta Rotterdam Eredivisie form: LWLLDD
Fortuna Sittard Eredivisie form: LWLWWL
Fortuna Sittard form (all competitions): WLLWWL
Team News
Sparta's Lennart Thy has scored only one goal in his last seven games, but that goal came against Fortuna, so he will be hopeful of getting on the scoresheet once again.
Bart Vriends is yet to recover from a thigh problem which has seen him miss the home side's last eight games including all of this year's action.
Deroy Duarte's muscle injury means that his involvement is not guaranteed yet, and it could well go down to a late fitness test.
Zian Flemming remains Fortuna's top scorer this term with 10 goals in all competitions, and half of them have come since the turn of the year.
Sparta Rotterdam possible starting lineup:
Okoye; Meijers, Heylen, Beugelsdijk, Fortes; Auassar, Burger, Smeets; Duarte, Mijnans, Thy
Fortuna Sittard possible starting lineup:
Van Osch; Cox, Tirpan, Angha, Rota; Hansson, Rienstra, Tekie, Semedo; Seuntjens, Flemming
We say: Sparta Rotterdam 1-0 Fortuna Sittard
Games between teams that are closely matched are usually very tight, and we expect that trend to continue here. However, we fancy Sparta Rotterdam to end up nicking this one.
Top betting tip
Adepoju Marvellous
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sparta Rotterdam win with a probability of 47.57%. A win for Fortuna Sittard had a probability of 28.91% and a draw had a probability of 23.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sparta Rotterdam win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.4%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.29%) and 2-0 (7.19%). The likeliest Fortuna Sittard win was 1-2 (7.07%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.82%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.1% likelihood.
