Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Spezia win with a probability of 47.9%. A win for Sampdoria had a probability of 26.53% and a draw had a probability of 25.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a Spezia win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.37%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.3%) and 2-0 (8.7%). The likeliest Sampdoria win was 0-1 (7.95%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.16%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 8.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Spezia would win this match.

Result
Spezia	Draw	Sampdoria
47.9% ( 0.41)	25.57% ( -0.07)	26.53% ( -0.34)

Both teams to score 51.46% (

-0.06)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

48.14% (

0.05)

51.86% (

-0.05)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

26.38% (

0.04)

73.62% (

-0.05)

Spezia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

78.34% (

0.2)

21.66% (

-0.2)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

45.21% (

0.31)

54.79% (

-0.31)

Sampdoria Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

65.68% (

-0.25)

34.32% (

0.24)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

28.98% (

-0.27)

71.02% (

0.26)

Score Analysis

Spezia 47.9%

Sampdoria 26.53%

Draw 25.57%

Spezia	Draw	Sampdoria
1-0 @ 11.37% ( 0.05) 2-1 @ 9.3% ( 0.03) 2-0 @ 8.7% ( 0.09) 3-1 @ 4.74% ( 0.04) 3-0 @ 4.44% ( 0.07) 3-2 @ 2.54% ( 0.01) 4-1 @ 1.81% ( 0.03) 4-0 @ 1.7% ( 0.04) 4-2 @ 0.97% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.34% Total : 47.9%	1-1 @ 12.16% ( -0.03) 0-0 @ 7.43% ( -0.02) 2-2 @ 4.97% ( -0.02) 3-3 @ 0.9% ( -0) Other @ 0.1% Total : 25.57%	0-1 @ 7.95% ( -0.07) 1-2 @ 6.5% ( -0.06) 0-2 @ 4.25% ( -0.07) 1-3 @ 2.32% ( -0.04) 2-3 @ 1.77% ( -0.02) 0-3 @ 1.52% ( -0.03) Other @ 2.22% Total : 26.53%