Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Spezia win with a probability of 50.69%. A draw had a probability of 27.7% and a win for Pisa had a probability of 21.59%.
The most likely scoreline for a Spezia win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.7%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.82%) and 2-1 (8.59%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.46%), while for a Pisa win it was 0-1 (9.05%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 1.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Spezia would win this match.