Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Monza win with a probability of 64.19%. A draw had a probability of 21.69% and a win for Empoli had a probability of 14.12%.
The most likely scoreline for a Monza win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.44%) and 2-1 (10.38%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.29%) , while for a Empoli win it was 0-1 (5.01%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 3.7% likelihood.