Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Monza win with a probability of 39.99%. A win for Juve Stabia had a probability of 30.76% and a draw had a probability of 29.29%.
The most likely scoreline for a Monza win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.69%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.42%) and 0-2 (7.32%). The likeliest Juve Stabia win was 1-0 (10.6%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.54%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.4% likelihood.