Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Spezia win with a probability of 46.21%. A draw had a probability of 27% and a win for Frosinone had a probability of 26.74%.
The most likely scoreline for a Spezia win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.95%) and 1-2 (8.87%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.71%), while for a Frosinone win it was 1-0 (9.12%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.4% likelihood.