Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Spezia win with a probability of 49.53%. A draw had a probability of 27.7% and a win for Mantova had a probability of 22.75%.
The most likely scoreline for a Spezia win was 0-1 with a probability of 15.14%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.38%) and 1-2 (8.64%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.59%), while for a Mantova win it was 1-0 (9.18%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 3.6% likelihood.