Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mantova win with a probability of 36.87%. A win for Sudtirol had a probability of 35.11% and a draw had a probability of 28%.
The most likely scoreline for a Mantova win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.39%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.85%) and 2-0 (6.79%). The likeliest Sudtirol win was 0-1 (11.05%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.16%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 6.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Mantova would win this match.