Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sassuolo win with a probability of 39.01%. A win for Lazio had a probability of 36.47% and a draw had a probability of 24.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sassuolo win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.87%) and 2-0 (5.92%). The likeliest Lazio win was 1-2 (8.23%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.38%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 5.5% likelihood.