Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sassuolo win with a probability of 40.21%. A win for Frosinone had a probability of 35.23% and a draw had a probability of 24.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sassuolo win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.7%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.08%) and 0-2 (6.16%). The likeliest Frosinone win was 2-1 (8.06%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.41%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 1% likelihood.