Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Napoli win with a probability of 51.34%. A draw had a probability of 25.3% and a win for Frosinone had a probability of 23.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Napoli win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.29%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.69%) and 1-2 (9.44%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.98%), while for a Frosinone win it was 1-0 (7.61%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Napoli would win this match.