Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Napoli win with a probability of 43.09%. A win for Roma had a probability of 32.6% and a draw had a probability of 24.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Napoli win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.02%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.3%) and 2-0 (6.63%). The likeliest Roma win was 1-2 (7.68%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.28%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-1 draw for this match.