Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Genoa win with a probability of 39.17%. A win for Lecce had a probability of 31.44% and a draw had a probability of 29.39%.
The most likely scoreline for a Genoa win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.18%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.29%) and 0-2 (7.35%). The likeliest Lecce win was 1-0 (10.33%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.92%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10.3% likelihood.