Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sassuolo win with a probability of 50.18%. A draw had a probability of 25.7% and a win for Lecce had a probability of 24.12%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sassuolo win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.61%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.69%) and 2-0 (8.54%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.52%) , while for a Lecce win it was 0-1 (6.99%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 1.8% likelihood.