Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Pisa win with a probability of 42.78%. A win for Lecce had a probability of 29.14% and a draw had a probability of 28.08%.
The most likely scoreline for a Pisa win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.62%) and 2-0 (7.65%). The likeliest Lecce win was 0-1 (9.64%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.43%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 6.9% likelihood.