Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lazio win with a probability of 69.12%. A draw had a probability of 19.9% and a win for Salernitana had a probability of 10.99%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lazio win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.5%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (14.33%) and 3-0 (9.44%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.22%), while for a Salernitana win it was 0-1 (4.67%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Lazio would win this match.