Serie A Gameweek 21
AC Milan
Jan 18, 2026 7.45pm
1
0
HT : 0 0
FT Stadio Giuseppe Meazza
Lecce
  • Niclas Fullkrug 73' yellowcard
  • Ruben Loftus-Cheek 73' yellowcard
  • Niclas Füllkrug 73' yellowcard
  • Niclas Fullkrug 76' goal
  • Niclas Füllkrug 76' goal
  • Zachary Athekame 80' yellowcard
  • Luka Modric 87' yellowcard
  • Christopher Nkunku 87' yellowcard
  • Luka Modrić 87' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Lameck Banda 54'
  • yellowcard Tete Morente 69'
  • yellowcard Konan N'dri 84'
  • yellowcard Konan N’Dri 84'
  • yellowcard Youssef Maleh 85'
  • yellowcard Konan N'dri 85'

AC Milan vs Lecce - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

The match

Match Preview

Form, Standings, Stats

AC Milan

All competitions
Last game
Jan 15, 2026 7.45pm
Como 1 - 3 AC Milan
Goals scored
42
Top scorer
Rafael Leao

Lecce

All competitions
Last game
Jan 14, 2026 7.45pm
Inter Milan 1 - 0 Lecce
Goals scored
18
Top scorer
Lameck Banda

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AC Milan win with a probability of 73%. A draw had a probability of 18.19% and a win for Lecce had a probability of 8.83%.

The most likely scoreline for a AC Milan win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.45%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (14.65%) and 3-0 (9.82%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.1%) , while for a Lecce win it was 0-1 (4.22%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 16.5% likelihood.

Result

AC Milan 73% ▲ (+0.05)
Draw 18.19% ▼ (-0.01)
Lecce 8.83% ▼ (-0.01)

Both Teams to Score: 

38.22% ▼ (-0.14)

Goals

Over 1.5 71.68% ▼ (-0.19)
Under 1.5 28.32% ▲ (+0.20)
Over 2.5 47.86% ▼ (-0.29)
Under 2.5 52.14% ▲ (+0.29)
Over 3.5 25.76% ▲ (+0.05)
Under 3.5 74.24% ▼ (-0.05)
Over 4.5 17.35% ▲ (+0.03)
Under 4.5 82.65% ▼ (-0.02)

First Half Winner

AC Milan 58.08% ▼ (-0.04)
Draw 31.88% ▼ (-0.09)
Lecce 10.04% ▲ (+0.13)

Team To Score First

AC Milan 72.65% ▼ (-0.04)
No Goal 7.67% ▲ (+0.06)
Lecce 19.68% ▼ (-0.02)

Corners

Over 8 62.32% ▼ (-0.08)
Equal 8 10.21% ▼ (-0.01)
Under 8 27.47% ▲ (+0.08)
Over 9 51.56% ▼ (-0.05)
Equal 9 10.76% ▼ (-0.02)
Under 9 37.68% ▲ (+0.08)
Over 10.5 41.07% ▼ (-0.04)
Under 10.5 58.93% ▲ (+0.04)

AC Milan Goals

Over 1.5 59.38% ▼ (-0.08)
Under 1.5 40.62% ▲ (+0.08)
Over 2.5 32.44% ▼ (-0.06)
Under 2.5 67.56% ▲ (+0.05)
Over 3.5 14.41% ▼ (-0.06)
Under 3.5 85.59% ▲ (+0.05)

Lecce Goals

Over 0.5 37.03% ▼ (-0.15)
Under 0.5 62.97% ▲ (+0.15)
Over 1.5 9.17% ▼ (-0.09)
Under 1.5 90.83% ▲ (+0.10)
Over 2.5 1.43%
Under 2.5 98.57%
Over 3.5 0.19% ▲ (+0.03)
Under 3.5 99.81% ▼ (-0.04)

Score analysis

AC Milan 73%
Draw 18.2%
Lecce 8.82%
AC Milan
1-0 @ 16.45% ▲ (+0.11)
2-0 @ 14.65% ▲ (+0.09)
3-0 @ 9.82% ▼ (-0.03)
2-1 @ 9.69% ▼ (-0.10)
3-1 @ 5.85% ▲ (+0.02)
3-2 @ 2.14% ▲ (+0.03)
Other @ 14.4% ▼ (-0.05)
Total : 73%
Draw
1-1 @ 8.1% ▼ (-0.02)
0-0 @ 7.67% ▲ (+0.06)
2-2 @ 2.2% ▼ (-0.03)
Other @ 0.01%
Total : 18.2%
Lecce
0-1 @ 4.22% ▲ (+0.05)
1-2 @ 2.34% ▼ (-0.11)
0-2 @ 1.06% ▲ (+0.03)
Other @ 0.18% ▲ (+0.03)
Total : 8.82%

Head to Head

Coppa Italia
AC Milan
Sep 23, 2025 8.00pm
3
0
HT : 0 0
FT
Lecce
Serie A
Lecce
Aug 29, 2025 7.45pm
0
2
HT : 0 0
FT
AC Milan
Serie A Gameweek 28
Lecce
Mar 8, 2025 5.00pm
2
3
HT : 1 0
FT Stadio Comunale Via del Mare
AC Milan
  • Nikola Krstovic 7' goal
  • Medon Berisha 42' yellowcard
  • Nikola Krstovic 59' goal
  • Nikola Krstovic 90'+1' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Sergio Conceicao 45'+4'
  • goal Antonino Gallo 68' (OG)
  • goal Christian Pulisic 73'
  • goal Christian Pulisic 81'
  • yellowcard Tammy Abraham 88'
Serie A Gameweek 6
AC Milan
Sep 27, 2024 7.45pm
3
0
HT : 3 0
FT Stadio Giuseppe Meazza
Lecce
  • Alvaro Morata 38' goal
  • Theo Hernandez 41' goal
  • Christian Pulisic 43' goal
  • Emerson 49' yellowcard
  • Davide Bartesaghi 80' redcard
  • yellowcard Federico Baschirotto 34'
Serie A Gameweek 31
AC Milan
Apr 6, 2024 2.00pm
3
0
HT : 2 0
FT Stadio Giuseppe Meazza
Lecce
  • Christian Pulisic 6' goal
  • Olivier Giroud 20' goal
  • Rafael Leao 57' goal
  • Samuel Chukwueze 78' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Alexis Blin 34'
  • redcard Nikola Krstovic 45'
Serie A Gameweek 12
Lecce
Nov 11, 2023 2.00pm
2
2
HT : 0 2
FT Stadio Comunale Via del Mare
AC Milan
  • Ylber Ramadani 45' yellowcard
  • Gabriel Espeto 62' yellowcard
  • Nicola Sansone 66' goal
  • Lameck Banda 70' goal
  • Roberto Piccoli 85' yellowcard
  • Joan Gonzalez 90'+2' yellowcard
  • goal Olivier Giroud 28'
  • goal Tijjani Reijnders 35'
  • yellowcard Theo Hernandez 44'
  • yellowcard Yunus Musah 80'
  • yellowcard Davide Calabria 80'
  • yellowcard Alessandro Florenzi 90'
  • redcard Olivier Giroud 90'+3'
  • yellowcard Olivier Giroud 90'+3'
  • yellowcard Rade Krunic 90'+5'

Form Data

Como 1 - 3 AC Milan
Fiorentina 0 - 0 AC Milan
AC Milan 1 - 1 Genoa
Cagliari 0 - 1 AC Milan
AC Milan 3 - 0 Hellas Verona
Napoli 2 - 0 AC Milan
Inter Milan 1 - 0 Lecce
Lecce 1 - 2 Parma
Lecce 0 - 2 Roma
Juventus 1 - 1 Lecce
Lecce 0 - 3 Como
Lecce 1 - 0 Pisa