Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Parma win with a probability of 37.71%. A win for Lecce had a probability of 32.33% and a draw had a probability of 29.95%.
The most likely scoreline for a Parma win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.28%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.83%) and 0-2 (7.07%). The likeliest Lecce win was 1-0 (12.02%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.21%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.8% likelihood.