Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lazio win with a probability of 41.63%. A win for Parma had a probability of 31.04% and a draw had a probability of 27.32%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lazio win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.73%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.52%) and 0-2 (7.74%). The likeliest Parma win was 1-0 (9.78%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.91%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 11.7% likelihood.