Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lecce win with a probability of 39.98%. A win for Pisa had a probability of 31.62% and a draw had a probability of 28.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lecce win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.53%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.09%) and 2-0 (7.67%). The likeliest Pisa win was 0-1 (10.8%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.22%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 12.5% likelihood.