Serie A Gameweek 20
Fiorentina
Jan 11, 2026 2.00pm
Stadio Artemio Franchi
AC Milan

Fiorentina vs AC Milan - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

The match

Match Preview

Form, Standings, Stats

Fiorentina

All competitions
Last game
Jan 7, 2026 7.45pm
Lazio 2 - 2 Fiorentina
Goals scored
29
Top scorer
Moise Kean

AC Milan

All competitions
Last game
Jan 8, 2026 7.45pm
AC Milan 1 - 1 Genoa
Goals scored
40
Top scorer
Rafael Leao

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Fiorentina win with a probability of 37.04%. A win for AC Milan has a probability of 35.96% and a draw has a probability of 27%.

The most likely scoreline for a Fiorentina win is 1-0 with a probability of 9.73%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-1 (8.68%) and 2-0 (5.92%). The likeliest AC Milan win is 0-1 (8.82%) , while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (12.79%).

Result

Fiorentina 37.04%
Draw 27%
AC Milan 35.96%

Both Teams to Score: 

54.04%

Goals

Over 1.5 74.15%
Under 1.5 25.85%
Over 2.5 49.54%
Under 2.5 50.46%
Over 3.5 27.02%
Under 3.5 72.98%
Over 4.5 14.44%
Under 4.5 85.56%

First Half Winner

Fiorentina 32.66%
Draw 43.86%
AC Milan 23.48%

Team To Score First

Fiorentina 50.25%
No Goal 7.29%
AC Milan 42.46%

Corners

Over 8 53.98%
Equal 8 12.12%
Under 8 33.9%
Over 9 41.99%
Equal 9 11.99%
Under 9 46.02%
Over 10.5 31.13%
Under 10.5 68.87%

Fiorentina Goals

Over 1.5 36.64%
Under 1.5 63.36%
Over 2.5 14.06%
Under 2.5 85.94%
Over 3.5 4.37%
Under 3.5 95.63%

AC Milan Goals

Over 0.5 70.15%
Under 0.5 29.85%
Over 1.5 36.31%
Under 1.5 63.69%
Over 2.5 14.16%
Under 2.5 85.84%
Over 3.5 4.48%
Under 3.5 95.52%

Score analysis

Fiorentina 37.04%
Draw 26.99%
AC Milan 35.96%
Fiorentina
1-0 @ 9.73%
2-1 @ 8.68%
2-0 @ 5.92%
3-1 @ 3.55%
3-0 @ 2.75%
3-2 @ 2.26%
Other @ 4.15%
Total : 37.04%
Draw
1-1 @ 12.79%
0-0 @ 7.29%
2-2 @ 5.56%
3-3 @ 1.13%
Other @ 0.22%
Total : 26.99%
AC Milan
0-1 @ 8.82%
1-2 @ 8.42%
0-2 @ 5.91%
1-3 @ 3.46%
0-3 @ 2.67%
2-3 @ 2.42%
Other @ 4.26%
Total : 35.96%

Head to Head

Serie A European Under-21s Championship
AC Milan
Oct 19, 2025 7.45pm
2
1
HT : 0 0
FT
Fiorentina
Serie A Gameweek 31
AC Milan
Apr 5, 2025 7.45pm
2
2
HT : 1 2
FT Stadio Giuseppe Meazza
Fiorentina
  • Tammy Abraham 23' goal
  • Theo Hernandez 41' yellowcard
  • Kyle Walker 45'+4' yellowcard
  • Christian Pulisic 58' yellowcard
  • Rafael Leao 58' yellowcard
  • Luka Jovic 64' goal
  • goal Malick Thiaw 7' (OG)
  • goal Moise Kean 10'
  • yellowcard Pablo Mari 31'
  • yellowcard Dodo 41'
  • yellowcard David de Gea 66'
  • redcard Raffaele Palladino 90'+3'
  • redcard Raffaele Palladino 90'+3'
Serie A Gameweek 7
Fiorentina
Oct 6, 2024 7.45pm
2
1
HT : 1 0
FT Stadio Artemio Franchi
AC Milan
  • Dodo 8' yellowcard
  • Yacine Adli 35' goal
  • Albert Gudmundsson 73' goal
  • Raffaele Palladino 86' redcard
  • Edoardo Bove 90'+5' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Fikayo Tomori 24'
  • yellowcard Paulo Fonseca 32'
  • yellowcard Alvaro Morata 43'
  • goal Christian Pulisic 60'
  • yellowcard Tijjani Reijnders 72'
  • redcard Theo Hernandez 90'+6'
Serie A Gameweek 30
Fiorentina
Mar 30, 2024 7.45pm
1
2
HT : 0 0
FT Stadio Artemio Franchi
AC Milan
  • Cristiano Biraghi 13' yellowcard
  • Lucas Martinez 24' yellowcard
  • Alfred Duncan 50' goal
  • yellowcard Malick Thiaw 21'
  • goal Ruben Loftus-Cheek 47'
  • goal Rafael Leao 53'
  • yellowcard Fikayo Tomori 89'
  • yellowcard Ruben Loftus-Cheek 90'+3'
Serie A Gameweek 13
AC Milan
Nov 25, 2023 7.45pm
1
0
HT : 1 0
FT Stadio Giuseppe Meazza
Fiorentina
  • Theo Hernandez 45'+2' goal
  • Fikayo Tomori 56' yellowcard
  • Stefano Pioli 77' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Arthur 12'
  • yellowcard Fabiano Parisi 45'+1'
Serie A Gameweek 25
Fiorentina
Mar 4, 2023 7.45pm
2
1
HT : 0 0
FT Stadio Artemio Franchi
AC Milan
  • Nicolas Gonzalez 49' goal
  • Luka Jovic 87' goal
  • goal Theo Hernandez 90'+5'

Form Data

Lazio 2 - 2 Fiorentina
Fiorentina 1 - 0 Cremonese
Parma 1 - 0 Fiorentina
Fiorentina 5 - 1 Udinese
Lausanne 1 - 0 Fiorentina
Fiorentina 1 - 2 Hellas Verona
AC Milan 1 - 1 Genoa
Cagliari 0 - 1 AC Milan
AC Milan 3 - 0 Hellas Verona
Napoli 2 - 0 AC Milan
AC Milan 2 - 2 Sassuolo
Torino 2 - 3 AC Milan