Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sassuolo win with a probability of 43.4%. A win for Fiorentina had a probability of 31.19% and a draw had a probability of 25.41%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sassuolo win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.8%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.02%) and 2-0 (7.33%). The likeliest Fiorentina win was 0-1 (8.05%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.04%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.5% likelihood.