Napoli logo
Supercoppa Italiana
Dec 18, 2025 at 7pm UK
 
Milan logo

Napoli
vs.
AC Milan

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Supercoppa Italiana clash between Napoli and AC Milan, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Napoli

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Last Game: Udinese 1-0 Napoli
Sunday, December 14 at 2pm in Serie A
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AC Milan

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Last Game: AC Milan 2-2 Sassuolo
Sunday, December 14 at 11.30am in Serie A
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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Napoli win with a probability of 44.27%. A win for AC Milan has a probability of 29.35% and a draw has a probability of 26.38%.

The most likely scoreline for a Napoli win is 1-0 with a probability of 11.29%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-1 (8.94%) and 2-0 (8.06%). The likeliest AC Milan win is 0-1 (8.79%) , while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (12.53%).

Result
NapoliDrawAC Milan
44.27% (-0.317 -0.32)26.38% (0.349 0.35)29.35% (-0.029 -0.03)
Both teams to score 50.92% (-1.08 -1.08)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
46.52% (-1.395 -1.4)53.48% (1.397 1.4)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
25% (-1.191 -1.19)75.01% (1.194 1.19)
Napoli Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
75.97% (-0.759 -0.76)24.04% (0.762 0.76)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
41.7% (-1.095 -1.1)58.3% (1.097 1.1)
AC Milan Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
67.03% (-0.744 -0.74)32.98% (0.748 0.75)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
30.44% (-0.836 -0.84)69.56% (0.84 0.84)
Score Analysis
    Napoli 44.26%
    AC Milan 29.35%
    Draw 26.38%
NapoliDrawAC Milan
1-0 @ 11.29% (0.36 0.36)
2-1 @ 8.94% (-0.09 -0.09)
2-0 @ 8.06% (0.084 0.08)
3-1 @ 4.25% (-0.139 -0.14)
3-0 @ 3.83% (-0.046 -0.05)
3-2 @ 2.36% (-0.127 -0.13)
4-1 @ 1.51% (-0.085 -0.09)
4-0 @ 1.36% (-0.048 -0.05)
Other @ 2.67%
Total : 44.26%
1-1 @ 12.53% (0.15 0.15)
0-0 @ 7.93% (0.426 0.43)
2-2 @ 4.96% (-0.153 -0.15)
Other @ 0.96%
Total : 26.38%
0-1 @ 8.79% (0.3 0.3)
1-2 @ 6.95% (-0.056999999999999 -0.06)
0-2 @ 4.88% (0.069 0.07)
1-3 @ 2.57% (-0.075 -0.07)
2-3 @ 1.83% (-0.096 -0.1)
0-3 @ 1.8% (-0.011 -0.01)
Other @ 2.52%
Total : 29.35%

Head to Head
Sep 28, 2025 7.45pm
Group C
AC Milan
2-1
Napoli
> Preview
Mar 30, 2025 7.45pm
gameweek 30
Napoli
2-1
AC Milan
Politano (2'), Lukaku (19')
Lukaku (40'), Conte (76')
Jovic (84')
Jimenez (90')
> Preview
Oct 29, 2024 7.45pm
gameweek 10
AC Milan
0-2
Napoli
Lukaku (5'), Kvaratskhelia (43')
Olivera (73')
> Preview
Feb 11, 2024 7.45pm
gameweek 24
AC Milan
1-0
Napoli
Hernandez (25')
Hernandez (90+6')

Jesus (85')
> Preview
Oct 29, 2023 7.45pm
gameweek 10
Napoli
2-2
AC Milan
Politano (50'), Raspadori (63')
Natan (53'), Di Lorenzo (65'), Zanoli (86')
Natan (89')
Giroud (22', 31')
Reijnders (55'), Romero (62'), Musah (78')
> Preview