Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Real Zaragoza win with a probability of 43.98%. A win for Sporting Gijon had a probability of 29.94% and a draw had a probability of 26.05%.
The most likely scoreline for a Real Zaragoza win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.35%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.48%) and 2-0 (7.38%). The likeliest Sporting Gijon win was 0-1 (8.07%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.95%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 2.9% likelihood.