Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Malaga win with a probability of 45.05%. A win for Las Palmas had a probability of 28.95% and a draw had a probability of 26.01%.
The most likely scoreline for a Malaga win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.56%) and 2-0 (7.74%). The likeliest Las Palmas win was 0-1 (7.71%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.61%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.6% likelihood.