Scottish Premiership Gameweek 23
Jan 24, 2026 3.00pm
Fir Park

Motherwell vs Kilmarnock - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Motherwell

All competitions
Scottish Premiership
Last game
Jan 10, 2026 3.00pm
Hibernian 0 - 0 Motherwell
Goals scored
30
Top scorer
Elliot Watt

Kilmarnock

All competitions
Scottish Premiership
Last game
Jan 10, 2026 3.00pm
Livingston 0 - 0 Kilmarnock
Goals scored
20
Top scorer
Bruce Anderson

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Motherwell win with a probability of 60.54%. A draw has a probability of 23.17% and a win for Kilmarnock has a probability of 16.25%.

The most likely scoreline for a Motherwell win is 1-0 with a probability of 14.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-0 (12.04%) and 2-1 (10%). The likeliest drawn scoreline is 1-1 (11.03%) , while for a Kilmarnock win it is 0-1 (6.18%).

Result

Motherwell 60.54% (+3.66)
Draw 23.17% (-1.77)
Kilmarnock 16.25% (-1.97)

Both Teams to Score: 

44.07% (-0.43)

Goals

Over 1.5 71.08% (+0.85)
Under 1.5 28.92% (-0.84)
Over 2.5 45.78% (+1.33)
Under 2.5 54.22% (-1.33)
Over 3.5 23.53% (+1.08)
Under 3.5 76.43% (-1.11)
Over 4.5 13.91% (+1.24)
Under 4.5 86.09% (-1.23)

First Half Winner

Motherwell 40.98% (+2.26)
Draw 39.6% (-1.58)
Kilmarnock 19.42% (-0.68)

Team To Score First

Motherwell 61.14% (+1.35)
No Goal 8.06% (-0.39)
Kilmarnock 30.8% (-0.95)

Corners

Over 8 61.6% (+1.18)
Equal 8 10.97% (-0.03)
Under 8 27.43% (-1.15)
Over 9 50.09% (+1.12)
Equal 9 11.51% (+0.08)
Under 9 38.4% (-1.18)
Over 10.5 39% (+0.97)
Under 10.5 61% (-0.97)

Motherwell Goals

Over 1.5 50.9% (+3.00)
Under 1.5 49.1% (-3.00)
Over 2.5 24.46% (+2.68)
Under 2.5 75.54% (-2.68)
Over 3.5 9.4% (+1.45)
Under 3.5 90.6% (-1.45)

Kilmarnock Goals

Over 0.5 48.7% (-2.62)
Under 0.5 51.3% (+2.62)
Over 1.5 16.36% (-1.99)
Under 1.5 83.64% (+1.99)
Over 2.5 4.08% (-0.84)
Under 2.5 95.92% (+0.85)
Over 3.5 0.86% (-0.26)
Under 3.5 99.14% (+0.25)

Score analysis

Motherwell 60.55%
Draw 23.17%
Kilmarnock 16.25%
Motherwell
1-0 @ 14.65% (-0.05)
2-0 @ 12.04% (+0.67)
2-1 @ 10% (+0.12)
3-0 @ 7.16% (+0.79)
3-1 @ 5.13% (+0.44)
3-2 @ 2.21% (+0.17)
Other @ 9.36% (+1.55)
Total : 60.55%
Draw
1-1 @ 11.03% (-0.75)
0-0 @ 8.06% (-0.39)
2-2 @ 3.48% (-0.40)
Other @ 0.04% (-0.11)
Total : 23.17%
Kilmarnock
0-1 @ 6.18% (-0.46)
1-2 @ 4.36% (-0.50)
0-2 @ 2.23% (-0.42)
1-3 @ 1.01% (-0.21)
Other @ 0.82% (-0.15)
Total : 16.25%

Head to Head

Scottish Premiership
Nov 22, 2025 3.00pm
1
3
HT : 0 0
FT
Scottish Premiership
Nov 22, 2025 3.00pm
Scottish Premiership
Aug 30, 2025 3.00pm
Scottish Premiership
Aug 30, 2025 3.00pm
2
2
HT : 0 0
FT
Scottish Premiership Gameweek 37
May 14, 2025 7.45pm
3
0
HT : 0 0
FT Fir Park
  • Luke Armstrong 77' goal
  • Callum Slattery 83' goal
  • Luke Armstrong 86' goal
  • redcard Robbie Deas 29'
  • yellowcard David Watson 80'
Scottish Premiership Gameweek 32
Apr 5, 2025 3.00pm
2
0
HT : 3 0
FT Rugby Park
  • Bradley Lyons 16' yellowcard
  • Bradley Lyons 16' yellowcard
  • Bradley Lyons 16' yellowcard
  • Fraser Murray 22' goal
  • Fraser Murray 22' goal
  • Fraser Murray 22' goal
  • Joe Wright 53' goal
  • Joe Wright 53' goal
  • Bobby Wales 81' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Stephen O'Donnell 12'
  • yellowcard Stephen O'Donnell 12'
  • yellowcard Stephen O'Donnell 12'
  • redcard Kofi Balmer 26'
  • redcard Kofi Balmer 26'
  • redcard Kofi Balmer 26'
  • yellowcard Dominic Thompson 63'
  • yellowcard Callum Slattery 71'