Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Motherwell win with a probability of 46.37%. A win for Kilmarnock had a probability of 28.13% and a draw had a probability of 25.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Motherwell win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.23%) and 2-0 (8.19%). The likeliest Kilmarnock win was 0-1 (7.97%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.12%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 8.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Motherwell would win this match.