| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 8 | Ayr United | 35 | -15 | 36 |
| 9 | Dunfermline Athletic | 35 | -16 | 35 |
| 10 | Queen of the South | 35 | -19 | 30 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 7 | Greenock Morton | 35 | -8 | 40 |
| 8 | Ayr United | 35 | -15 | 36 |
| 9 | Dunfermline Athletic | 35 | -16 | 35 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Queen of the South win with a probability of 46.48%. A win for Ayr United had a probability of 27.11% and a draw had a probability of 26.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Queen of the South win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.03%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.06%) and 2-0 (8.71%). The likeliest Ayr United win was 0-1 (8.64%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.51%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.5% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Queen of the South | Draw | Ayr United |
| 46.48% | 26.4% | 27.11% |
| Both teams to score 49.43% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 45.28% | 54.71% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 23.96% | 76.03% |
| Queen of the South Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.49% | 23.51% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 42.45% | 57.55% |
| Ayr United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 64.63% | 35.37% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 27.86% | 72.13% |
| Score Analysis |
| Queen of the South | Draw | Ayr United |
| 1-0 @ 12.03% 2-1 @ 9.06% 2-0 @ 8.71% 3-1 @ 4.37% 3-0 @ 4.21% 3-2 @ 2.27% 4-1 @ 1.58% 4-0 @ 1.52% Other @ 2.72% Total : 46.47% | 1-1 @ 12.51% 0-0 @ 8.32% 2-2 @ 4.71% Other @ 0.87% Total : 26.4% | 0-1 @ 8.64% 1-2 @ 6.5% 0-2 @ 4.49% 1-3 @ 2.25% 2-3 @ 1.63% 0-3 @ 1.56% Other @ 2.04% Total : 27.11% |