Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Al-Ahli win with a probability of 45.06%. A win for Al Shabab had a probability of 31.68% and a draw had a probability of 23.3%.
The most likely scoreline for an Al-Ahli win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.1%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.32%) and 0-2 (6.37%). The likeliest Al Shabab win was 2-1 (7.46%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.45%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-2 win for Al-Ahli in this match.