Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Al-Nassr win with a probability of 42.51%. A win for Al-Ahli had a probability of 35.62% and a draw had a probability of 21.9%.
The most likely scoreline for an Al-Nassr win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.33%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (5.23%) and 1-0 (5.16%). The likeliest Al-Ahli win was 1-2 (7.58%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.84%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 8.8% likelihood.