Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a NEOM SC win with a probability of 57.3%. A draw had a probability of 21.54% and a win for Al Najma had a probability of 21.16%.
The most likely scoreline for a NEOM SC win was 1-2 with a probability of 10.09%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.81%) and 0-2 (8.48%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.4%) , while for a Al Najma win it was 2-1 (5.28%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 5.3% likelihood.