Saudi Pro League Gameweek 23
Feb 19, 2026 7.00pm
Alinma Stadium

Al-Ahli vs Al Najma - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Al-Ahli

All competitions
Saudi Pro League
Last game
Feb 13, 2026 1.55pm
Al Shabab 2 - 5 Al-Ahli
Goals scored
39
Top scorer
Ivan Toney

Al Najma

All competitions
Saudi Pro League
Last game
Feb 14, 2026 3.35pm
Al Najma 2 - 1 Al Kholood
Goals scored
19
Top scorer
David Tijanic

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Al-Ahli win with a probability of 77.93%. A draw has a probability of 13.91% and a win for Al Najma has a probability of 8.14%.

The most likely scoreline for a Al-Ahli win is 2-0 with a probability of 10.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 3-0 (10.6%) and 2-1 (8.87%). The likeliest drawn scoreline is 1-1 (6.24%) , while for a Al Najma win it is 0-1 (2.56%).

Result

Al-Ahli 77.93%
Draw 13.91%
Al Najma 8.14% (-0.01)

Both Teams to Score: 

50.66% (-0.06)

Goals

Over 1.5 85.11% (-0.05)
Under 1.5 14.89% (+0.05)
Over 2.5 66.99% (-0.08)
Under 2.5 33.01% (+0.08)
Over 3.5 44.99% (-0.15)
Under 3.5 54.96% (+0.10)
Over 4.5 33.85% (-0.08)
Under 4.5 66.15% (+0.09)

First Half Winner

Al-Ahli 56.49%
Draw 30.9%
Al Najma 12.61%

Team To Score First

Al-Ahli 75.91% (-0.03)
No Goal 3.48% (+0.01)
Al Najma 20.61% (+0.01)

Corners

Over 8 63.06% (-0.01)
Equal 8 10.82% (-0.01)
Under 8 26.12% (+0.04)
Over 9 51.56%
Equal 9 11.5% (-0.01)
Under 9 36.94% (+0.01)
Over 10.5 40.36% (+0.01)
Under 10.5 59.64% (-0.01)

Al-Ahli Goals

Over 1.5 74.05% (-0.05)
Under 1.5 25.95% (+0.06)
Over 2.5 50.1% (-0.08)
Under 2.5 49.9% (+0.08)
Over 3.5 28.79% (-0.04)
Under 3.5 71.21% (+0.04)

Al Najma Goals

Over 0.5 37.53% (-0.04)
Under 0.5 62.47% (+0.04)
Over 1.5 12.85% (-0.06)
Under 1.5 87.15% (+0.06)
Over 2.5 2.83% (-0.05)
Under 2.5 97.17% (+0.05)
Over 3.5 0.63% (-0.03)
Under 3.5 99.37% (+0.03)

Score analysis

Al-Ahli 77.93%
Draw 13.91%
Al Najma 8.14%
Al-Ahli
2-0 @ 10.78% (+0.01)
3-0 @ 10.6% (+0.02)
2-1 @ 8.87% (+0.03)
1-0 @ 8.83% (+0.02)
3-1 @ 7.01% (-0.04)
3-2 @ 3.08% (-0.01)
Other @ 28.76% (-0.03)
Total : 77.93%
Draw
1-1 @ 6.24% (+0.01)
2-2 @ 3.54% (-0.01)
0-0 @ 3.48% (+0.01)
Other @ 0.03% (-0.02)
Total : 13.91%
Al Najma
0-1 @ 2.56% (+0.02)
1-2 @ 2.29% (+0.02)
0-2 @ 1.11%
Other @ 0.6% (-0.02)
Total : 8.14%

Head to Head

Saudi Pro League
Oct 23, 2025 7.00pm
0
1
HT : 0 0
FT