Saudi Pro League Gameweek 23
Feb 19, 2026 7.00pm
4
1
HT : 0 1
FT Alinma Stadium
  • Ivan Toney 37' yellowcard
  • Valentin Atangana 48' goal
  • Ivan Toney 45'+6' yellowcard
  • Firas Al-Buraikan 67' yellowcard
  • Ivan Toney 69' goal
  • Matheus Gonçalves 83' yellowcard
  • Ivan Toney 87' goal
  • Mohammed Abdulrahman 90' yellowcard
  • Ziyad Al-Johani 90' yellowcard
  • Sultan Al-Essa 90' yellowcard
  • Ivan Toney 90'+4' yellowcard
  • goal Lázaro 27'
  • yellowcard Abdulaziz Al-Harabi 72'
  • yellowcard Rakan Al-Tulayhi 72'
  • yellowcard Hisham Al-Dubais 77'
  • yellowcard Nawaf Al-Hawsawi 77'
  • yellowcard Sultan Al-Essa 90'
  • yellowcard 90'

Al-Ahli vs Al Najma - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Al-Ahli

All competitions
Saudi Pro League
Last game
Feb 13, 2026 1.55pm
Al Shabab 2 - 5 Al-Ahli
Goals scored
51
Top scorer
Ivan Toney

Al Najma

All competitions
Saudi Pro League
Last game
Feb 14, 2026 3.35pm
Al Najma 2 - 1 Al Kholood
Goals scored
23
Top scorer
Lázaro

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Al-Ahli win with a probability of 77.89%. A draw had a probability of 13.96% and a win for Al Najma had a probability of 8.16%.

The most likely scoreline for a Al-Ahli win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (10.59%) and 2-1 (8.87%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.28%) , while for a Al Najma win it was 0-1 (2.57%).

Result

Al-Ahli 77.89% (-0.05)
Draw 13.96% (+0.06)
Al Najma 8.16% (+0.02)

Both Teams to Score: 

50.65% (-0.01)

Goals

Over 1.5 85.11%
Under 1.5 14.89%
Over 2.5 66.92% (-0.07)
Under 2.5 33.08% (+0.08)
Over 3.5 44.93% (-0.07)
Under 3.5 55.07% (+0.11)
Over 4.5 33.82% (-0.04)
Under 4.5 66.18% (+0.04)

First Half Winner

Al-Ahli 56.49%
Draw 30.9%
Al Najma 12.61%

Team To Score First

Al-Ahli 75.89% (-0.02)
No Goal 3.5% (+0.03)
Al Najma 20.61%

Corners

Over 8 63.05% (-0.02)
Equal 8 10.82%
Under 8 26.13% (+0.01)
Over 9 51.56%
Equal 9 11.49% (-0.01)
Under 9 36.95% (+0.02)
Over 10.5 40.36%
Under 10.5 59.64%

Al-Ahli Goals

Over 1.5 73.99% (-0.07)
Under 1.5 26.01% (+0.07)
Over 2.5 50.05% (-0.06)
Under 2.5 49.95% (+0.06)
Over 3.5 28.79%
Under 3.5 71.21%

Al Najma Goals

Over 0.5 37.55% (+0.02)
Under 0.5 62.45% (-0.02)
Over 1.5 12.84% (-0.01)
Under 1.5 87.16% (+0.01)
Over 2.5 2.82% (-0.02)
Under 2.5 97.18% (+0.02)
Over 3.5 0.62% (-0.02)
Under 3.5 99.38% (+0.01)

Score analysis

Al-Ahli 77.89%
Draw 13.95%
Al Najma 8.17%
Al-Ahli
2-0 @ 10.78%
3-0 @ 10.59% (-0.01)
2-1 @ 8.87%
1-0 @ 8.83%
3-1 @ 6.99% (-0.02)
3-2 @ 3.07% (-0.02)
Other @ 28.76%
Total : 77.89%
Draw
1-1 @ 6.28% (+0.05)
2-2 @ 3.53% (-0.02)
0-0 @ 3.5% (+0.03)
Other @ 0.03%
Total : 13.95%
Al Najma
0-1 @ 2.57% (+0.01)
1-2 @ 2.29%
0-2 @ 1.13% (+0.02)
Other @ 0.59% (-0.02)
Total : 8.17%

Head to Head

Saudi Pro League
Oct 23, 2025 7.00pm
0
1
HT : 0 0
FT