Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Al Riyadh win with a probability of 38.87%. A win for Al Najma had a probability of 36.7% and a draw had a probability of 24.43%.
The most likely scoreline for a Al Riyadh win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.98%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.65%) and 0-2 (5.71%). The likeliest Al Najma win was 2-1 (8.16%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.4%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.4% likelihood.