Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Al Fateh win with a probability of 45.76%. A win for Al Najma had a probability of 29.9% and a draw had a probability of 24.34%.
The most likely scoreline for a Al Fateh win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.41%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.08%) and 0-2 (6.61%). The likeliest Al Najma win was 2-1 (7.01%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.36%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.4% likelihood.