Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Al-Ahli win with a probability of 60.7%. A draw had a probability of 20.83% and a win for NEOM SC had a probability of 18.46%.
The most likely scoreline for a Al-Ahli win was 0-2 with a probability of 10.23%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (10.18%) and 0-1 (10.13%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.36%) , while for a NEOM SC win it was 1-0 (4.94%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 6.5% likelihood.