Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a NEOM SC win with a probability of 47.32%. A win for Al Shabab had a probability of 28.99% and a draw had a probability of 23.69%.
The most likely scoreline for a NEOM SC win was 1-2 with a probability of 10.23%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.47%) and 0-2 (6.9%). The likeliest Al Shabab win was 2-1 (7.26%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.91%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.3% likelihood.