Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Al-Ahli win with a probability of 82.68%. A draw had a probability of 11.1% and a win for Al Kholood had a probability of 6.22%.
The most likely scoreline for an Al-Ahli win was 3-0 with a probability of 10.29%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.01%) and 3-1 (7.99%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (5.04%), while for an Al Kholood win it was 1-2 (1.96%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 6.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Al-Ahli would win this match.