Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Al-Ahli win with a probability of 46.11%. A win for Buriram United had a probability of 29.47% and a draw had a probability of 24.4%.
The most likely scoreline for an Al-Ahli win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.31%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.17%) and 2-0 (7.44%). The likeliest Buriram United win was 1-2 (7.17%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.46%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Al-Ahli would win this match.