Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Al-Ahli win with a probability of 46.11%. A win for Buriram United had a probability of 29.47% and a draw had a probability of 24.4%.

The most likely scoreline for an Al-Ahli win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.31%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.17%) and 2-0 (7.44%). The likeliest Buriram United win was 1-2 (7.17%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.46%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Al-Ahli would win this match.

Result
Al-Ahli	Draw	Buriram United
46.11% ( -0.45)	24.43% ( 0.33)	29.47% ( 0.12)

Both teams to score 57.29% (

-1.05)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

54.8% (

-1.41)

45.2% (

1.42)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

32.46% (

-1.37)

67.54% (

1.37)

Al-Ahli Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

80.28% (

-0.75)

19.72% (

0.75)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

48.27% (

-1.23)

51.73% (

1.24)

Buriram United Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

71.36% (

-0.63)

28.64% (

0.64)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

35.55% (

-0.8)

64.45% (

0.8)

Score Analysis

Al-Ahli 46.11%

Buriram United 29.47%

Draw 24.42%

Al-Ahli	Draw	Buriram United
2-1 @ 9.31% ( -0.04) 1-0 @ 9.17% ( 0.34) 2-0 @ 7.44% ( 0.1) 3-1 @ 5.04% ( -0.14) 3-0 @ 4.03% ( -0.04) 3-2 @ 3.15% ( -0.15) 4-1 @ 2.05% ( -0.11) 4-0 @ 1.64% ( -0.06) 4-2 @ 1.28% ( -0.09) Other @ 3.02% Total : 46.11%	1-1 @ 11.46% ( 0.23) 2-2 @ 5.82% ( -0.13) 0-0 @ 5.65% ( 0.34) 3-3 @ 1.31% ( -0.09) Other @ 0.18% Total : 24.42%	1-2 @ 7.17% ( 0.02) 0-1 @ 7.06% ( 0.3) 0-2 @ 4.41% ( 0.11) 1-3 @ 2.99% ( -0.05) 2-3 @ 2.43% ( -0.1) 0-3 @ 1.84% ( 0.02) 1-4 @ 0.93% ( -0.03) Other @ 2.64% Total : 29.47%