Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne City win with a probability of 56.2%. A win for Buriram United had a probability of 22.59% and a draw had a probability of 21.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne City win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.72%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.88%) and 1-0 (7.69%). The likeliest Buriram United win was 1-2 (5.85%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.49%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 4.6% likelihood.