Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne City win with a probability of 46.58%. A win for Buriram United had a probability of 30.87% and a draw had a probability of 22.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne City win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.09%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (6.69%) and 0-2 (6.18%). The likeliest Buriram United win was 2-1 (7.24%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.84%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 6.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Melbourne City would win this match.