Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne City win with a probability of 46.58%. A win for Buriram United had a probability of 30.87% and a draw had a probability of 22.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne City win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.09%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (6.69%) and 0-2 (6.18%). The likeliest Buriram United win was 2-1 (7.24%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.84%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 6.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Melbourne City would win this match.

Result
Buriram United	Draw	Melbourne City
30.87% ( 0.55)	22.55% ( -0.02)	46.58% ( -0.52)

Both teams to score 64.9% (

0.42)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

64.43% (

0.42)

35.56% (

-0.41)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

42.38% (

0.46)

57.62% (

-0.45)

Buriram United Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

77.04% (

0.53)

22.95% (

-0.53)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

43.26% (

0.77)

56.74% (

-0.77)

Melbourne City Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

84.23% (

-0.03)

15.77% (

0.03)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

55.11% (

-0.06)

44.89% (

0.06)

Score Analysis

Buriram United 30.87%

Melbourne City 46.58%

Draw 22.55%

Buriram United	Draw	Melbourne City
2-1 @ 7.24% ( 0.07) 1-0 @ 5.33% ( -0.03) 2-0 @ 3.92% ( 0.04) 3-1 @ 3.55% ( 0.09) 3-2 @ 3.28% ( 0.08) 3-0 @ 1.92% ( 0.05) 4-1 @ 1.31% ( 0.05) 4-2 @ 1.21% ( 0.05) Other @ 3.12% Total : 30.87%	1-1 @ 9.84% ( -0.06) 2-2 @ 6.69% ( 0.06) 0-0 @ 3.62% ( -0.08) 3-3 @ 2.02% ( 0.04) Other @ 0.38% Total : 22.55%	1-2 @ 9.09% ( -0.07) 0-1 @ 6.69% ( -0.15) 0-2 @ 6.18% ( -0.14) 1-3 @ 5.6% ( -0.05) 2-3 @ 4.12% ( 0.03) 0-3 @ 3.8% ( -0.09) 1-4 @ 2.58% ( -0.02) 2-4 @ 1.9% ( 0.01) 0-4 @ 1.76% ( -0.04) 1-5 @ 0.96% ( -0.01) 3-4 @ 0.93% ( 0.02) Other @ 2.98% Total : 46.58%