Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Zenit St Petersburg win with a probability of 76.05%. A draw had a probability of 16.85% and a win for Sochi had a probability of 7.12%.
The most likely scoreline for a Zenit St Petersburg win was 2-0 with a probability of 16.07%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (14.85%) and 3-0 (11.21%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.39%) , while for a Sochi win it was 0-1 (3.23%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.2% likelihood.