Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rubin Kazan win with a probability of 47.58%. A draw had a probability of 28.1% and a win for Fakel had a probability of 24.34%.
The most likely scoreline for a Rubin Kazan win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.84%) and 2-1 (8.54%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.8%), while for a Fakel win it was 0-1 (9.6%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Rubin Kazan would win this match.