Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a CSKA Moscow win with a probability of 41.14%. A win for Lokomotiv Moscow had a probability of 34.31% and a draw had a probability of 24.55%.
The most likely scoreline for a CSKA Moscow win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.92%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.04%) and 2-0 (5.85%). The likeliest Lokomotiv Moscow win was 1-2 (8.04%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.64%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.7% likelihood.