Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Zenit St Petersburg win with a probability of 47.43%. A win for Akhmat Grozny had a probability of 26.29% and a draw had a probability of 26.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Zenit St Petersburg win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.2%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.13%) and 0-2 (8.95%). The likeliest Akhmat Grozny win was 1-0 (8.49%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.44%). The actual scoreline of 1-5 was predicted with a 0.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Zenit St Petersburg would win this match.