Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Krylia Sovetov win with a probability of 43.78%. A win for Akhmat Grozny had a probability of 29.2% and a draw had a probability of 27%.
The most likely scoreline for a Krylia Sovetov win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.98%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.76%) and 2-0 (8.21%). The likeliest Akhmat Grozny win was 0-1 (9.33%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.77%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 5% likelihood.