Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ural Yekaterinburg win with a probability of 39.48%. A win for Krylia Sovetov had a probability of 32.79% and a draw had a probability of 27.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Ural Yekaterinburg win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.22%) and 2-0 (7.34%). The likeliest Krylia Sovetov win was 0-1 (10.39%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.06%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.3% likelihood.