Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ural Yekaterinburg win with a probability of 38.1%. A win for FC Krasnodar had a probability of 36.16% and a draw had a probability of 25.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Ural Yekaterinburg win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.41%) and 2-0 (6.29%). The likeliest FC Krasnodar win was 0-1 (8.85%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.19%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 3.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Ural Yekaterinburg would win this match.